Friday, December 26, 2008

A Questionable QQ Decision

I was playing in a PokerStars 180-player tournament with 61 players remaining. This hand came up and I was screaming at c24 to fold. What do you think? (For those that don’t know, I learned the ‘M’ factor from Harrington on Hold’em. Check it out here.

PokerStars Game #23268345079: Tournament #129596577, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/12/26 11:27:07 ET
Table '129596577 3' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1:
Vsteak (2620 in chips) M of 11.6
Seat 2: Czar (5488 in chips) M of 24.4
Seat 3: c24 (2640 in chips) M of 11.7
Seat 4: G81 (1277 in chips) M of 5.7
Seat 5: CgCook38 (3495 in chips) M of 11.1
Seat 6: wolf (1625 in chips) M of 7.2
Seat 7: lax (1050 in chips) M of 4.6
Seat 8: ge44 (5140 in chips) M of 22.9
Seat 9: jd68 (4505 in chips) M of 20
jd68: posts small blind 75
Vsteak: posts big blind 150
As you can see, no player is particularly hurting right now. The blinds are fairly low and we are still 43 people from the money. Less experienced players may panic here, but there’s no reason to. Every player at this table needs to accumulate chips before making the money, so no one is a strong favorite.
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CgCook38 [Js 4s]
Czar: folds
c24: raises 300 to 450 A standard raise from early position may indicate strength, even online. A good reason to fold most holdings.
G81: folds
CgCook38: folds Easy fold for me.
wolf: raises 1175 to 1625 and is all-in This is a bad player if others have been paying attention. He could have any two cards that most people would raise from position.
lax: calls 1050 and is all-in A fairly new player to the table, I have no idea what he has.
ge44: raises 3515 to 5140 and is all-in Okay. What the hell? This guy might have a monster. I wouldn’t do this without QQ or above, even with chips. But this particular guy might do it with anything.
jd68: folds
Vsteak: folds
c24: calls 2190 and is all-in What would you call with? It would take AA or KK for me to call here. It’s my tourney life and if I fold I still have enough for more than 9 trips around the table. If I call, I am guaranteed to get in against three other opponents. If I beat all but the shortest stack I am looking at a maximum gain of 3,755 while risking everything. If I beat all of my opponents I will only get 8,180 chips, an M of 36.4. That’s a great result, but how can I be certain that I am the favorite? If I know what the other guys have, is it still worth the call? We’ll find out I guess…
Uncalled bet (2500) returned to ge44
jd68 said, "gl all"
*** FLOP *** [7s 2c 6d]
*** TURN *** [7s 2c 6d] [5h]
*** RIVER *** [7s 2c 6d 5h] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
c24: shows [Qh Qs] (a pair of Queens)
ge44: shows [9d 9h] (a straight, Five to Nine)
ge44 collected 2030 from side pot-2
wolf: shows [Ah 6c] (a pair of Sixes)
ge44 collected 1725 from side pot-1
lax: shows [As 8s] (a pair of Eights)
ge44 collected 4425 from main pot
So if I were c24 and decided to call with only pocket Queens, I would have lost this hand with only a 55% chance to win pre-flop. A coin-flip to lose. Interestingly enough, I said only call with AA or KK. If he called with KK here, he would have only had a 54.8% chance to win (63% with the other two Aces), but I am not good enough to fold those here. c24 was correct that he was ahead, but I believe incorrect to call.. What do you think? Incidentally, ge44 finished 24th just before the second break. I guess having all those chips isn’t always enough. (My percentages were obtained using Cardplayer's Odds Calculator)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 8180 Main pot 4425. Side pot-1 1725. Side pot-2 2030. Rake 0
Board [7s 2c 6d 5h 8c]
Seat 1: Vsteak (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: Czar folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: c24 showed [Qh Qs] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 4: G81 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: CgCook38 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: wolf showed [Ah 6c] and lost with a pair of Sixes
Seat 7: lax showed [As 8s] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 8: ge44 (button) showed [9d 9h] and won (8180) with a straight, Five to Nine
Seat 9: jd68 (small blind) folded before Flop

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